IndustryThe CFT corn market oscillates with an upward trend in volume
1、 In terms of spot goods
Recently, grain depots in major domestic production areas have started to open for harvest, and some grain holders have shown a significant increase in reluctance to sell. The market volume has remained low, and many grain consuming enterprises have maintained rigid replenishment of their warehouses. Some enterprises have continued to raise prices slightly. After the increase in corn volume at northern ports, traders lowered prices to purchase. The morning arrival volume at the port was over 36000 tons, a significant decrease from yesterday. The number of purchasing entities increased, with contract grain purchases being the main focus. Last week, the southern port received 266000 tons of grain and shipped 598000 tons of goods per week. The arrival of imported corn has decreased, and the demand of feed enterprises has turned to domestic corn. The willingness to pick up goods is obvious, and the inventory of domestic corn has fallen to a lower level. Affected by the continuous decline in northern ports and futures markets, traders' pricing mentality has weakened. The domestic spot price of corn is basically stable, with some areas continuing to fluctuate. New season corn continues to enter the market in Heilongjiang, Jilin and other areas of Northeast China, with sufficient supply of tidal grain. The direct warehouses of China Grain Reserves Corporation have started to purchase new season corn, and some traders have actively entered the market to purchase. The sales speed of new corn has accelerated, and some grain sources have been dried and shipped to northern ports. The main flow of tidal grain is to deep processing enterprises, which purchase according to actual demand, resulting in a slight decline in corn prices. In terms of new products, the harvest of new products in Jilin region this year is relatively late compared to the same period last year, and the new grain has not been harvested on a large scale yet. It is expected to be launched in a concentrated manner by the end of this month. The Huanghuai production area in North China has been affected by continuous rainy weather, which has restricted the purchase and sales activities of corn. The supply of grain sources is relatively tight, and the arrival of goods from deep processing enterprises has decreased. Feed enterprises in deep processing enterprises have maintained a cautious attitude, purchasing according to demand with narrow price fluctuations.
2、 Futures related
On October 21, 2024, the CBOT December corn contract rose 4.75 cents to close at 409.50 cents per bushel. Due to strong export sales.
On October 22, 2024, the main contract c2501 for corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) opened at 2168 yuan and closed at 2179 yuan, with a rise or fall of 0 yuan. The highest price was 2180 yuan, the lowest price was 2161 yuan, and the settlement price was 2170 yuan. The total trading volume was 477647 lots, with 834882 lots held.
3、 Focus on hot topics in the later stage
Changes in weather, purchasing mentality, feed mill strategy, domestic policies, international and domestic corn markets, purchasing situation in production areas, arrival of imported corn at ports, epidemic situation, livestock and poultry product market, changes in international freight rates, international economic situation, changes in wheat prices, feed demand, and the impact of weather on corn.
4、 Related news
1. Traders say that Iranian national grain buyers are looking to purchase 120000 tons of feed corn and 120000 tons of feed barley.
2. Traders claim that the Korea Feed Association (KFA) purchased 65000 tons of US corn through private transactions.
3. As of the week ending October 17, 2024, the inspection volume of US corn exports was 999811 tons, compared to 506616 tons last week and 472413 tons in the same period last year.
4. As of October 17th, the average price of DDGS in 34 regions of the United States was $146 per ton, up $1 from a week ago, despite a decline in spot soybean meal and corn prices. Last week, the national corn price index in the United States fell by 11 cents per bushel compared to a week ago.
5. American farmers are harvesting high-yielding corn and soybean crops at the fastest pace in years, putting pressure on their physical strength and farm storage capacity.
6. The US Department of Agriculture stated that private exporters reported selling 130000 tons of US corn to South Korea for delivery in 2024/25.
7. The US Department of Agriculture stated that private exporters reported selling 169926 tons of US corn to Mexico for delivery in 2024/25.
8. The US Department of Agriculture stated that private exporters reported selling 198192 tons of US corn to unknown destinations for delivery in 2024/25.
9. The French Agriculture Agency (FranceAgriMer) stated that as of October 14th, the progress of corn harvest in France was 13%, higher than 6% a week ago, but lower than 67% in the same period last year, and also lower than the five-year average of 55%, as rainfall continues to hinder field work.
10. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has issued a notice stating that from October 23 to 29, 2024, the benchmark price for corn will be $213.9 per ton, and the export tariff will be 2671.7 rubles per ton; The benchmark price for the previous week was 218.3 US dollars, with an export tariff of 2827.2 rubles per ton.
11. The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture stated that as of October 21, the grain export volume of Ukraine for the fiscal year 2024/25 (starting from July) was 13 million tons, higher than the previous week's 12.04 million tons, an increase of 56.0% from the same period last year's 8.333 million tons, and a year-on-year increase of 56.6% a week ago.
12. According to consulting firm AgRural, as of October 17th, the first quarter corn planting area for 2024/25 in central and southern Brazil has reached 48% of the expected area, up from 41% a week ago and 46% compared to the same period last year.
13. Brazilian port workers are expected to hold a 12 hour strike on October 22, starting at 7am and ending at 7pm.
14. On October 22, China Grain Reserves Corporation Inner Mongolia Branch's corn bidding procurement results showed that they planned to purchase 58454 tons of corn, with a transaction quantity of 37996 tons and a transaction rate of 65%.
15. On October 22, China Grain Reserves Corporation Hunan Branch's corn bidding procurement results showed that they planned to purchase 12250 tons of corn, with a transaction quantity of 12250 tons and a transaction rate of 100%.
16. On October 22, China Grain Reserves Corporation Beijing Branch's corn bidding procurement results showed that they planned to purchase 19944 tons of corn, with a transaction quantity of 11967 tons and a transaction rate of 60%.
17. On October 22, China Grain Reserves Corporation Zhejiang Branch's corn bidding procurement results showed that they planned to purchase 48000 tons of corn, with a transaction quantity of 48000 tons and a transaction rate of 100%.
18. On October 22, China Grain Reserves Corporation announced the bidding sales results for corn by its storage and transportation company: the planned sales volume for corn is 65878 tons, with a transaction volume of 26352 tons and a transaction rate of 40%.
19. On October 22nd, China Grain Reserves Corporation's Heilongjiang branch sold 62828 tons of corn through bidding, but all bids were unsuccessful.
20. On October 22, the bidding sales results of imported corn (genetically modified) on China Grain Reserves Network showed that the planned sales quantity was 499046 tons, but the actual transaction was 154705 tons, with a transaction rate of 31%.
On October 22, the bidding sales results of imported corn (non genetically modified) on China Grain Reserves Network showed that the planned sales quantity was 9608 tons, but the actual transaction was 1442 tons, with a transaction rate of 15%.
22. China Grain Reserves Corporation, Henan Branch of China Grain Reserves Corporation, corn purchase and sales two-way transaction results on October 22: planned to trade 18198 tons of corn, with a transaction quantity of 18198 tons and a transaction rate of 100%.
23. China Grain Reserves Corporation Beijing Branch Corn Bidding Sales Results on October 22: The planned sales of corn are 22211 tons, with a transaction quantity of 22211 tons and a transaction rate of 100%.
5、 Market analysis in the future
In October, the inventory of aged corn in China will continue to decline, and the listing of new season corn in North China, East China, and Central China will continue to increase. Around mid October, the corn in the main production areas of Northeast China will enter the stage of comprehensive harvesting, and the market will enter the stage of transition from old to new crops. The pressure of new crops will be further highlighted, and the supply of aged corn will continue to be in a period of shortage. The total consumption on the demand side will generally stop increasing and then decrease, but as the supply of feed corn will still rely mainly on aged corn, the transfer of grain sources from deep processing enterprises to new high moisture corn will help alleviate the competition for "grain grabbing" with feed corn. The official launch of the collection and storage of direct warehouses in Northeast China has provided some support for market sentiment, and signs of a rebound in local corn prices have emerged. Taking into account various factors, we believe that in October, except for some short-term opportunities for rebound in local markets, most of the time the market transaction prices in most regions will continue to maintain a weak trend. The probability of the monthly average price of corn in October continuing to decline month on month and the decline still being significantly high is still high. In November, as the harvest gradually comes to an end and the expected reduction in production is gradually confirmed, coupled with the significant decrease in the import quantity of imported corn and substitutes, the probability of a slightly stronger rebound in corn prices in production areas is expected to increase moderately. Continue to monitor the impact of weather conditions during the harvest season in the main production areas of the north.
