Global corn supply and demand are tightening this year

On December 10, 2024, the US Department of Agriculture released a supply and demand report, raising domestic usage and export estimates for 2024/25 and lowering ending inventory. It is expected that the US corn production for 2024/2025 will be 15.1 billion catties, unchanged from last month. The expected yield of US corn in 2024/2025 is 183.1 bushels per acre, which is the same as last month. The US Department of Agriculture has raised its corn export forecast for 2024/25 by 150 million catties to 2.475 billion catties. The corn consumption in the ethanol industry has been increased by 50 million catties to 5.5 billion catties. Domestic usage and export estimates have been raised, and the estimated ending inventory of US corn for 2024/25 is 1.738 billion catties, lower than the November forecast of 1.938 billion catties.

In terms of global corn supply and demand adjustment, this month the US Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for global corn production for 2024/25 to 1.21789 billion tons, higher than last month's forecast of 1.2194 billion tons and a decrease of 1.51 million tons. Corn production outside the United States has been reduced as the reduction in production in the European ｕｎｉｏｎ, Mexico, and Indonesia exceeds the increase in production in Ukraine. The reduction in EU corn production reflects that Italy, Romania, Croatia, and Austria have reduced their production more than Poland, Spain, and France have increased their production. The decrease in corn production in Mexico reflects a reduction in the expected winter corn area. The estimated global corn export volume for 2024/25 has been raised to 193.04 million tons, an increase of 3.21 million tons from the previous month. The global corn feed consumption for 2024/25 is expected to be 779.36 million tons, an increase of 2.86 million tons from the previous month. The global corn ending inventory is expected to be 296.44 million tons, a decrease of 7.7 million tons from last month.

　Due to extreme weather affecting crop growth in the main production areas of Northeast China, the forecast for China's corn production for 2024/25 has been slightly reduced this month. The estimated corn production for 2024/25 in China is 293.84 million tons, which is about 1 percentage point lower than last month's forecast. The demand forecast remains consistent with last month. In some areas of Northeast China, there is more rainfall during the new season of corn harvest, and the temperature in early November is relatively high, which increases the difficulty of corn storage and makes farmers more willing to sell grain than usual. The arrival volume of goods at northern ports has increased significantly, but China Grain Reserves Corporation continues to purchase in the city, which provides certain support for the price of new season corn. In addition, the consumption of corn deep processing remains high, the consumption of feed is expected to increase, and imports remain at a low level. The domestic market is expected to stabilize and recover.