CFT market panic spreads, corn falls endlessly

1、 In terms of spot goods

The number of new corn listings in major domestic production areas continues to increase, coupled with the gradual sale of aged grain inventory, the market supply is relatively loose, and feed enterprises are cautious about replenishing inventory. The demand for feed is limited, and corn prices continue to be under pressure and decline. New and old grains are jointly supplied to the Northeast market, and the volume of corn truck transportation in northern ports continues to increase. The morning arrival volume is about 12000 tons or more, and there are four 140000 tons of ships operating in the port. Most enterprises in southern ports have already entered the stage of stocking up for National Day, with a slight increase in cargo speed. However, overall demand is limited, and traders have a weak attitude towards quoting. The domestic spot price of corn is basically stable, with some areas continuing to decline. The new grain in Northeast China has been harvested and listed one after another. Deep processing enterprises have opened scales to purchase trendy grain at low prices, while the inventory of aged grain is relatively high compared to the same period last year. Some third-party funds still have repayment pressure at the end of the month. Grain holding entities have a high enthusiasm for shipping and continue to sell at a loss. Feed companies are cautious about purchasing new corn and purchase it based on sales. Deep processing enterprises have contracted grain supplements and continue to purchase at a lower price. In terms of new works, most corn is in the milk ripening and maturity stages, and the Jilin region is in the milk ripening stage. The Huanghuai production area in North China has seen an improvement in downstream product sales, leading to a rise in the operating rate of deep processing enterprises and an increase in demand for raw grains. However, as the new season of corn enters the harvesting period, there is a significant increase in the supply of grain sources, with a large proportion of new grain. Processing enterprises receive mostly wet grain from their factories, which is not conducive to preservation. Deep processing enterprises continue to control the purchase volume and lower the purchase price, while corn prices continue to decline.

2、 Futures related

On September 24, 2024, the CBOT December corn contract closed 1.75 cents lower at 411.75 cents per bushel. Due to heavy harvest pressure.

On September 25, 2024, the main corn futures contract c2411 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) opened at 2157 yuan and closed at 2137 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan. The highest price was 2162 yuan and the lowest price was 2135 yuan, with a settlement price of 2148 yuan. The total trading volume was 547552 lots, and the position held was 528486 lots.

3、 Focus on hot topics in the later stage

Changes in weather, purchasing mentality, feed mill strategy, domestic policies, international and domestic corn markets, purchasing situation in production areas, arrival of imported corn at ports, epidemic situation, livestock and poultry product market, changes in international freight rates, international economic situation, changes in wheat prices, feed demand, and the impact of weather on corn.

4、 Related news

1. Government and industry officials have stated that workers at six major grain terminals located at the Port of Vancouver in Canada went on strike on Tuesday, which could disrupt exports of rapeseed and other crops.

2. As of Sunday, September 22, in 18 states that account for 92% of the country's corn planting area, the proportion of corn entering the pit stage in the United States was 92%, with a five-year average of 91%. The maturity rate of corn is 61%, with a five-year average of 55%.

3. The Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) stated that as of September 22, the progress of corn planting in the first quarter of 2024/25 was 16.2%, higher than 12% a week ago and 18.3% in the same period last year.

4. The Ukrainian National Meteorological Agency stated that as of September 20th, the sowing conditions for winter crops in most parts of Ukraine are still unsatisfactory.

5. The report released by the Ukrainian Agricultural Enterprise Club (UCAB) states that the Ukrainian State Railway Company Ukrzaliznytsia plans to increase railway freight taxes, which will hit farmers who are already struggling due to the international food downturn and may lead to a decrease in Ukraine's grain production and exports.

6. American farmers participating in the annual crop observation project reported that their corn and soybean yield ratings were downgraded last week. Although expected to be slightly higher than historical averages, the early harvest results have already shown the adverse effects of dry weather in the late growing season.

7. On September 25th, China Grain Reserves Corporation Jilin Branch's corn bidding procurement results showed that they planned to purchase 28556 tons of corn, with a transaction quantity of 18562 tons and a transaction rate of 65%.

8. On September 25th, China Grain Reserves Corporation Inner Mongolia Branch's corn bidding procurement results showed that they planned to purchase 35500 tons of corn, with a transaction quantity of 35500 tons and a transaction rate of 100%.

9. On September 25th, China Grain Reserves Corporation Xi'an Branch's corn bidding procurement results showed that they planned to purchase 7543 tons of corn, with a transaction quantity of 7543 tons and a transaction rate of 100%.

10. On September 25th, China Grain Reserves Corporation Shandong Branch's corn bidding procurement results showed that they planned to purchase 20451 tons of corn, with a transaction quantity of 20451 tons and a transaction rate of 100%.

5、 Market analysis in the future

In September, the inventory of aged corn in China will continue to decline, and the total consumption of corn on the demand side of breeding and feed production will continue to increase month on month. The consumption of deep processing sector will gradually increase as the operating rate will gradually increase, and the total consumption will continue to grow. Overall, during the September period, the domestic supply of aged corn will continue to be in a stagnant stage, and the overall trend of further tightening supply remains unchanged. Theoretically, both the supply and demand sides will continue to have positive support for prices. On the other hand, the sales of spring corn in the southern and central regions will continue to increase, and the tight supply of aged corn is expected to ease moderately. The combination of overdue reserves of alternative raw materials such as corn, wheat, and rice will continue to be auctioned and listed, and the supply of imported corn substitutes is generally sufficient. Therefore, the overall situation of sufficient corn supply remains unchanged. It is predicted that during the period of September to October, corn prices are more likely to remain stable with a slightly weak trend, except for temporary short-term rebound opportunities. Pay close attention to the impact of later weather conditions on the growth and harvesting of corn in the production area.