Affected by severe weather, global corn supply will tighten this year

On October 11, 2024, the US Department of Agriculture released a supply and demand report, raising estimates for US corn yield, output, and exports for 2024/25, and lowering initial and final inventories. The expected corn production for 2024/2025 is 15.2 billion catties, an increase of 17 million catties compared to last month's forecast. The expected yield of US corn in 2024/2025 is 183.8 bushels per acre, an increase of 0.2 bushels per acre compared to last month's forecast. The initial inventory of US corn for 2024/2025 has been reduced to 1.76 billion catties, lower than last month's forecast of 1.812 billion catties. The expected export of corn for 2024/2025 has been raised to 2.325 billion catties, higher than last month's estimated 2.3 billion catties. The year-end inventory of corn for 2024/2025 is 2 billion catties, lower than the September forecast of 58 million catties.

In terms of global corn supply and demand adjustment, this month the US Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for global corn production for 2024/25 to 1.21719 billion tons, lower than last month's forecast of 1.21857 billion tons. Corn production outside the United States has decreased as the decline in production in Ukraine, Egypt, Russia, and the Philippines exceeds the increase in production in India. The estimated global corn export volume for 2024/25 has been slightly reduced to 191 million tons, a decrease of 870000 tons compared to the previous period. Corn exports from Ukraine and Russia have been lowered, while corn exports from the United States have been raised. China and Iran have reduced their corn imports, but Egypt and the Philippines have increased their imports. The global corn feed consumption for 2024/25 is expected to be 774 million tons, with a month on month increase of 2.09 million tons. The ending inventory of corn outside the United States was slightly reduced to 255.8 million tons, mainly reflecting that the decrease in ending inventory of corn in China exceeded the increase in Argentina and Mexico. The global corn ending inventory for 2024/25 is expected to be 306.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from the previous month.

The forecast for the supply and demand situation of corn in China this month remains consistent with last month. Most of the domestic corn producing areas are dominated by sunny weather, which is conducive to the harvesting and drying of new grains. Currently, most of the new season corn harvest in North China has been completed, and the harvest progress in Northeast China has exceeded 40%. Since August, the import volume of corn has continued to significantly decrease, while the consumption of corn for feed and deep processing has steadily increased.