Corn is difficult to form a short-term reversal trend

External market: As of the week ending October 25, 2024, global corn prices have mostly risen, with Chicago corn rebounding strongly as US corn prices around $4 are attractive to global buyers, especially considering reduced export supply to Brazil and Ukraine, which suggests that US corn prices are likely to see a seasonal bottom. As of last Friday (October 25th), the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December corn futures closed at approximately $4.1525 per bushel, up 2.6% from a week ago; The spot price of No. 2 yellow corn for the October shipping schedule in Meiwan is $4.8625 per bushel, up 4.1%. The October report raised the yield of US corn, but demand increased and US corn continued to rebound.

Spot: This week, domestic new season corn continues to be listed, and trading entities and processing companies remain cautious about building warehouses. Feed companies mainly purchase for essential needs, while corn prices are low. Grassroots growers' reluctance to sell has strengthened, leading to a continuous decline in the amount of goods received by deep processing companies. Companies have started to raise prices, supporting strong price fluctuations.

Futures: The domestic corn futures price rebounded significantly this week, mainly due to rumors of market reserve buying, and long funds actively entered the market. As of last Friday (October 25th), the opening price of C2501 contract was 2228 yuan, the highest price was 2241 yuan, the lowest price was 2161 yuan, and the closing price was 2225 yuan, an increase of 27 yuan or 1.23%. The second consecutive week of downward trend has ended.

Overall, recent export sales have remained strong, with some rebound in US corn. However, due to the impact of precipitation weather in South America, the space for speculation on corn weather is limited, and the short-term speculative themes are limited. US corn may continue to fluctuate around the 400 cent mark in the short term. A large number of new season corn has been launched in China, and under seasonal pressure, there is insufficient momentum for price increases. However, the news of increased storage in Northeast China continues to boost market sentiment, and the sentiment is cautiously optimistic. It is expected that corn will continue to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. In the medium to long term, the import of corn has decreased, and the impact of replacing grains has weakened. The demand side is expected to continue to improve, and the seasonal storage policy will support the bottom. The trend of domestic corn futures may have a breakthrough or reversal.