Corn demand shows a stable and positive trend, with rolling replenishment and transportation as the main focus

In terms of futures, on the 3rd, the main corn contract 2501 opened slightly lower and then fluctuated lower. It closed lower in the evening, with a high of 2136 tons and a low of 2113 tons, closing at 2127 tons, down 1.07% from the previous trading day. The position increased by 3008 lots to 875099 lots. In terms of spot goods, on the 2nd, the average price of second-class corn at Jinzhou Port (600190) was 2140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day.

Corn review: In terms of spot goods, on the supply side, grassroots farmers are actively selling grain, and the progress of grain sales is relatively fast compared to the same period last year, resulting in increased supply pressure. In terms of substitutes, wheat has no substitution advantage, and the use of imported corn and barley in feed production replaces some of the feed corn usage, dragging down corn prices.

On the demand side, the continuous growth of pig inventory has driven the demand for feed to improve, but feed breeding enterprises maintain a focus on on-demand procurement and rolling replenishment. The processing profit of deep processing enterprises is still acceptable, with a slight increase in demand, and downstream pre holiday stocking and increased production materials. Some deep processing enterprises in Northeast China may build a small amount of Chaozhou grain inventory, and their purchasing enthusiasm may slightly increase.

In terms of inventory, the overall demand side focuses on low inventory and rolling replenishment operations. Overall, there is a stable and positive trend in demand, and the supply side is actively selling grain. During the peak period of grain sales, the pressure on corn supply still exists, and the overall operation is relatively weak. In terms of futures, the 2501 contract may follow the weak trend of spot trading, but the downward space may be limited. Pay attention to the support strength of the lower front.

2、 Industry News

On December 2nd, corn prices in the North and South ports slightly decreased. Corn with a moisture content of 15% and a bulk density of 720 in the Jinzhou port area was quoted at 2080-2090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10-15 yuan/ton. Corn with a moisture content of 15% was priced at 2130-2140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from yesterday.

The quoted price for corn with a moisture content of 15% and a bulk density of 720 in the Bayuquan Port area is 2080-2090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10-15 yuan/ton. The average price for corn with a moisture content of 15% is 2130-2140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from yesterday. The transaction price of 15% moisture corn bulk grain in Shekou Port, Guangdong is 2230-2250 yuan/ton, and the price of first grade corn is 2290-2310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from yesterday.

The main source of production in Northeast China is the purchase and sale of Chaozhou grain, and the enthusiasm of traders for shipment is still acceptable. The number of arrivals at northern ports continues to be at a high level, and the enthusiasm of traders for purchasing is not high. There are still many operating ships. Southern ports have a domestic trade inventory of 907000 tons and imported 33000 tons of corn. Affected by the decline in prices at northern ports and the continuous increase in corn inventories, traders' pricing mentality has weakened.

On December 2nd, it was reported that corn prices fluctuated downward this week. Overseas, the net sales of US corn exports recorded 1.13 million tons last week, which is in line with expectations. The planting and growth of South American corn are good, and the weekly performance of US corn is fluctuating. In terms of domestic supply, there is sufficient corn supply after the autumn harvest, and the selling pressure in the production area continues to exist. The corn production is relatively fast. As of November 28th, the national corn sales progress is 27%, including 22% in Northeast China and 27% in North China.

In terms of demand, there is an expected increase in corn demand from breeding enterprises in the fourth quarter, and there is a need for feed and breeding enterprises to replenish inventory; The increase in start-up of processing enterprises has led to an improvement in processing demand. The increase in new grain purchases in Northeast China provides support for grain prices. The domestic corn harvest has been basically completed, and the pressure to market corn continues to exist. In addition, the temperature in the production area has warmed up, and the increase in corn production has led to an overall weak spot market. However, there is still a premium on the spot market, and the short-term corn market is fluctuating downward.

On December 2nd, the US Department of Agriculture will release its weekly export sales report on Friday. As of the week ending November 21, 2024, the net sales volume of US corn exports may range from 800000 to 2 million tons. As of November 20th, Argentine farmers have sold 37.79 million tons of 2023/24 corn, which is 910000 tons higher than a week ago. Last year's sales for the same period were 27.04 million tons.

The European Commission has raised its forecast for corn production in the 27 EU countries for 2024/25 by 1.6 million tons, from last month's forecast of 58 million tons to 59.6 million tons, but still nearly 3% lower than last year's production. The amount of goods received in front of deep processing doors in North China has increased, and the purchase price is running weakly. The inventory of Beigang has rebounded, and the port volume has increased, but the stability of grain source toxins is unstable, and downstream transactions are sluggish.

The consumption of deep processing enterprises has rebounded seasonally, with a steady increase in inventory of 3.842 million tons last weekend. Feed companies have slowed down their procurement pace, with an average inventory of 29.21 days for feed companies nationwide, an increase of 0.20 days from last week, a month on month increase of 0.69%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.20%. Pay attention to the enthusiasm of downstream demand and the support of storage policies for the market.