Corn: Short term weak reality and strong expectations still play a game

As of 3:00 pm on December 24th, the main corn 05 contract closed at 2189,+7/+0.32%, with a daily increase of+34000 lots, a total position of 1.06 million lots, and a trading volume of 491000 lots, an increase of -81000 lots from the previous trading day.

Overnight CBOT corn futures closed higher, with three consecutive gains at the daily level. The previous sharp decline was fully recovered, and there is a trend of hitting the recent high. The most actively traded contract in March finally closed at 447.75 cents per bushel, up 0.39% from the previous high of 451.25 cents per bushel. On Sunday, the US Congress passed a new spending bill that not only avoids a government shutdown but also provides $10 billion in economic aid to farmers and ranchers, with US corn growers receiving $43.80 per acre in direct cash payments.

Domestic corn futures fluctuated strongly during the day, with the main corn 05 contract remaining volatile for most of the day, but slightly rising in the closing session, ultimately recording a single digit increase. The fundamentals of spot goods have not changed much within the day, with a slight decrease in the arrival of goods from deep processing in production areas. Prices have stabilized, with some rebounding. However, overall volume pressure has not significantly eased, and we should continue to pay attention to grassroots sales in the future. On December 23-24, the National Financial Work Conference was held in Beijing. The meeting pointed out that in 2025, it is necessary to implement more active fiscal policies, continue to exert more strength, and play a good policy "combination punch". The stock index rose more than 1% due to this impact, and the corn market may also be boosted and strengthen. There is still a game between short-term weak reality and strong expectations, and we will continue to focus on spot performance and policy follow-up.