Can the continued release of favorable news "support" the corn market?

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 300000 tons of corn in November, a year-on-year decrease of 91.8%; From January to November, the cumulative import of corn was 13.32 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 39.9%. On December 18, 2024, China Grain Reserves Corporation announced that it would cease the export and sale of imported corn from today onwards. Currently, the price of domestically produced corn in some production areas is lower than that of imported corn. The suspension of the auction of imported corn has limited overall impact on boosting the market situation.

Affected by the policy of increasing storage capacity and storage conditions of China Grain Reserves Corporation, as well as lower than expected grain prices, some grassroots farmers in Northeast China have increased their reluctance to sell at high prices. However, the fluctuation of temperature in the early stage led to a decline in grain quality, and some grain sources failed to meet the national reserve purchase standards. The deviation of corn is still difficult to digest, and the trend of grain holding entities concentrating on shipment is obvious.

Processing companies have relaxed their supply of goods, leading to successive price cutting acquisitions.

The profits of grain traders are meager, and their willingness to build a large number of warehouses is low.

Research shows that on December 20th, a trader in Liaoyuan City, Jilin Province sold 2024 machine harvested corn at a truck price of 1830 yuan/ton (with a bulk density of about 680g/L, moisture content within 15%, and mold growth of about 5%); A corn trading entity in Zhaozhou, Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province, has reported that in 2024, the export price of dried corn (with a moisture content of 15%, bulk density of 700g/L, and mold growth within 2%) will be 1870-1880 yuan/ton.

The current weather in the North China production area has slowed down the decline in moisture content of new grains, and there is a higher risk of storing deviated corn. Coupled with the impact of financial and warehouse capacity pressures on grain holders, shipping sentiment has increased, and traders' inventories are relatively low compared to the same period last year, with a focus on buying and selling as needed. A small amount of high-quality dry grain is kept in stock, and the circulation of grain sources in the corn market is loose. Downstream enterprises maintain high levels of arrivals, and market entities control the pace of purchases, with prices flexibly adjusted according to the amount of arrivals. According to research, on December 20th, a trader in Hengshui City, Hebei Province, purchased corn at a first class bidding price with a reference settlement price of 2030 yuan/ton (bulk density 710g/L, moisture content 14.5%, mold growth within 2%); A trader in Huairen City, Shanxi Province sells first-class 2024 corn for screening and loading at a price of 2080 yuan/ton (bulk density above 730g/L, moisture content within 14%); A trader in Chengde City, Hebei Province sold Chao corn for a price of 1680 yuan/ton (with a bulk density of about 710g/L, moisture content of 20% to 22%, and mold growth of about 1%).

At present, the arrival volume of corn market enterprises remains high, and the inventory of medium and large feed enterprises is sufficient. In order to maintain profits, the enthusiasm for stocking is poor, and the current focus is still on selecting the best and replenishing a small amount of inventory, which weakens the support for corn prices. The current trend for processing enterprises to acquire at a lower price has become common, and feed and breeding enterprises have low enthusiasm for short-term stocking. In the future, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the sales mentality of grain holding entities and the impact of national policies on increasing storage.