The paper industry is showing a trend of recovery, and Jiangxi has resumed production

Recently, there have been frequent positive signals in the paper industry, with various factors such as policy environment and market demand showing good expectations for the recovery of the paper industry. Business Society believes that the overall development of the domestic paper industry in 2024 is good, and the market is showing an overall trend of recovery.

Several securities firms also hold an optimistic attitude towards the future of the paper industry in their research reports. As analyzed by CICC, with the gradual implementation of national policies to boost the consumer market, the paper industry, as a countercyclical industry closely linked to consumer demand, has a high degree of certainty in demand recovery. Guojin Securities pointed out that under the expectation of improved demand on a month on month basis, it is expected that the overall profitability of the paper industry will steadily recover in 2025. Guoxin Securities believes that with the manifestation of domestic policy stimulus effects and the entry of interest rate cuts overseas, the demand for pulp and paper is expected to rebound with the recovery of consumption.

Industry insiders pointed out that Chenming Paper Industry, as a large paper making enterprise that implemented the "pulp paper integration strategy" earlier. At present, the company has chemical pulp production lines in major production bases such as Shouguang, Zhanjiang, and Huanggang, with an annual pulp and paper production capacity of 11 million tons, including a total wood pulp production capacity of 4.3 million tons. It is the first modern large-scale paper enterprise in China to achieve self-sufficiency in wood pulp. With the recent resumption of work and production in Jiangxi Chenming, it has also sent a positive signal to the market.

For the industry trend in 2025, Business Society believes that on the supply side, the paper industry will enter the end of its production capacity cycle, and the supply may gradually balance. On the demand side, the rigid demand brought about by the production capacity of finished paper provides a bottom line for pulp prices, and the demand increment brought about by macro stimulus policies may cause seasonal trends in both wood pulp and finished paper during the peak consumption season.