Supply is relatively balanced, and corn is oscillating

Spot price

On January 7th, there was a narrow adjustment in spot prices, with mainstream quotes in the three provinces of Northeast China and Inner Mongolia ranging from 1870 to 1950 yuan/ton, and prices fluctuating; The mainstream price range for the Huang Huai region in North China is 1990-2060 yuan/ton, with fluctuating prices. In terms of port prices, the purchase price of Bayuquan (bulk density 680-730/15% water) was 1980-2010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from yesterday; The purchase price of Jinzhou Port (15% water/bulk density 680-720) was 1990-2010 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday; The transaction price of bulk corn in Shekou Port was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday. The import price of first-class corn is 2030-2050 yuan/ton, and the export price of second-class corn is 2030-2050 yuan/ton, both of which are unchanged from yesterday.

Fundamental news

According to monitoring data from China Grain and Oil Business Network, as of the end of the first week of 2025, the grain inventory at Guangzhou Port was 3.1 million tons, a decrease of 38000 tons from last week's 3.138 million tons, a decrease of 1.21% compared to the previous week, an increase of 1.242 million tons from the same period last year's 1.858 million tons, and a year-on-year increase of 66.85%.

Among them, the inventory of corn was 1.694 million tons, an increase of 31000 tons from last week's 1.663 million tons, a month on month increase of 1.86%, and an increase of 442000 tons from the same period last year's 1.252 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 35.30%; The inventory of sorghum is 520000 tons, a decrease of 22000 tons from last week's 542000 tons, a month on month decrease of 4.06%, and an increase of 320000 tons from the same period last year's 200000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 160.00%; The inventory of barley was 886000 tons, a decrease of 47000 tons from last week's 933000 tons, a month on month decrease of 5.04%, and an increase of 480000 tons from the same period last year's 406000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 118.23%.

Market Outlook

The spot price is slightly weak, and the production volume in the production area has slowed down, but the overall supply is still relatively high. The increase in vehicles from Shandong has led to mixed fluctuations in the purchase prices for deep processing. Traders have a demand to replenish their inventory, coupled with an increase in inventory collection efforts, supporting price increases. However, currently, port inventories remain high, coupled with pre holiday or concentrated grain sales, limiting price increases. In the medium to long term, the reduction in production and gradual consumption of grain sales of new corn will alleviate supply, coupled with substitution and weakened imports, which may support price increases. Short term corn purchase and sales are relatively stable, with no obvious driving force, and prices fluctuate narrowly.

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