Corn prices may experience a phased increase in 2025

In 2024, the domestic corn market prices showed a fluctuating downward trend. The surplus of old crops is relatively large, coupled with the high yield of corn in the previous crop year, the overall supply is relatively sufficient; Maintaining basic needs for animal feed, limited marginal demand for new additions, and stable demand for deep processing, with overall growth not significant. In addition, the import volume in the first half of 2024 is still relatively large, which restricts the rise of corn prices. With a significant decrease in imported corn quantities and the possibility of reduced production in 2025, if the supply of substitutes decreases in the second and third quarters, coupled with speculation about planting areas and weather conditions in the new season, corn prices may experience a temporary upward trend.

The global corn supply is sufficient, and the import quantity has significantly decreased

It is expected that the total global corn supply will decrease year-on-year in 2024/2025, but it will still be sufficient. The production of new works in the United States and Ukraine is expected to decrease year-on-year, while the production of new works in Brazil and Argentina is expected to increase year-on-year.

Brazil has become the top importer of corn in China, and its corn export pace needs to be closely monitored. At present, the export volume of corn from the United States to China is at a historically low level, but the cost is more advantageous compared to Brazil. If the country further tightens the quantity of imported grains, it will to some extent benefit domestic corn prices.

According to customs data, the import volume of corn in China in November 2024 was 300000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 92%; The total import volume from January to November was 13.42 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 39.5%. Among them, 6.345 million tons were imported from Brazil, accounting for 47.3%; Imported 4.613 million tons from Ukraine, accounting for 34.4%; Imported 2.065 million tons from the United States, accounting for 15.4%.

Due to the abundant domestic corn harvest and price decline in 2024, corn imports have slowed down in recent months. After China restarted importing corn from Brazil in September 2024, Brazil has been the largest corn supplier to China for three consecutive months; In November of that year, approximately 190000 tons of Brazilian corn were imported, accounting for 63% of the total imports for that month and a year-on-year decrease of 94%. In November 2024, China imported 50000 tons of corn from Ukraine. Recently, China has hardly ordered American corn.

New Year's supply and demand expectations are expected to be loose, and there may be a stage of upward trend

Currently, market expectations tend to favor relatively loose supply and demand for corn, which also largely suppresses the enthusiasm of intermediate traders and grain consuming enterprises to build warehouses. Based on the current situation where traders and downstream enterprises have a weak demand for building warehouses and supply pressure still exists, the domestic corn prices in 2025 can be predicted as follows: in the first quarter, especially around the Spring Festival, the pace of new corn sales determines the magnitude of supply pressure, and the overall corn market is under pressure, with prices possibly fluctuating downward.

From May to September, if the supply of substitutes decreases, combined with the planting area of new season corn and weather speculation, it may further drive prices to rebound.

From October to December, new grain will be launched in a concentrated manner, increasing supply pressure and potentially causing prices to fall again.

Overall, it is expected that domestic corn prices will show a trend of first suppressing and then rising in 2025, with the possibility of a temporary increase.