The golden period of corn is only five days left

As the Spring Festival approaches, there is less and less time left for grain holders to sell their grain. Once the small New Year in the north passes, the purchasing and selling status of the market before the Spring Festival will undergo significant changes. With the continuous rise in corn prices, whether to ship before or after the Spring Festival has become the most concerned topic for everyone. Today, let's compare the gap and advantages and disadvantages of shipping before and after the Spring Festival!

Actually, everyone now understands that the corn market before the Spring Festival has already become clear. As long as there are no major changes in the market in the next five days, corn prices will basically freeze. According to the current mentality of grain holders, the possibility of shipping before the Spring Festival is decreasing. However, I have a few suggestions that I need to talk to you about:

1. Although the general trend before the Spring Festival is basically a foregone conclusion, as we mentioned earlier, not all grain sources are suitable to be kept after the New Year. Firstly, there is not much difference between local grain sources with more quality and higher moisture content being produced before or after the Spring Festival. Secondly, it is important to pay attention to the situation of surrounding enterprises. If there are more surrounding enterprises or transportation is more convenient, they can be kept after the New Year, and vice versa, choose the right time to monetize!

2. Don't blindly believe in the policy's support for the market. We have said this more than once. The reason is simple. This year, there are problems with the procurement of grain by China Grain Reserves Corporation, mainly concentrated in the Northeast region, while large-scale procurement has not yet been carried out in the North China region. However, there have been many actions taken by grain depots in various regions, and even some flour milling enterprises have started to purchase corn. What is the purpose of doing this? You may want to think about it!

3. Nowadays, there is no shortage of food in enterprises. Except for some enterprises in Shandong that have a certain demand for replenishment, most enterprises have sufficient inventory to cope with 15-30 days of consumption. For end products, the next week is the "golden period" and the main reason for the rapid changes in enterprises in the past week. However, this is a holiday effect and does not have sustainability!

4. The surplus grain at the grassroots level is 40-50%, while the grain sources in the hands of channel traders are also between 10-20%. Therefore, there is still supply pressure, not to mention the possibility of a wave of grain sales after the New Year, especially when there is a flood of grain, which will inevitably be concentrated in the market after the temperature rises!

So the editor said that it is still necessary for some grain holding entities to ship before the Spring Festival. The current market circulation pressure is not high, and there are not many opportunities for enterprises to massively lower prices. It can also be said that the next five days will be the "golden period" for corn before the Spring Festival, and there will not be many competitors and the price remains at a good level!

As for shipping after the Spring Festival, the benefits and drawbacks are basically equal. The difference lies in the pressure faced by the inside and outside of the country. In addition, there is a significant difference in the mentality of grain holders. A brief summary is as follows:

1. If conditions permit, we can choose to ship after June, as the market has the motivation to continue rising. If chosen between February and April, the biggest risk is the influx of grain into the market, especially the flow of grain from Northeast China!

2. I personally am not optimistic about whether the enterprise will conduct a new round of large-scale inventory replenishment in the short term after the New Year. Even for deep processing enterprises, the production days before the New Year are sufficient to meet the demand, and the inventory remains basically unchanged. The enterprise will still have the initiative after the New Year!

3. Selling grain after the Spring Festival avoids the pressure of centralized grain sales before the Spring Festival, but the threat has not disappeared and has only been postponed. Therefore, it is necessary to catch up with market changes before the Spring Festival. In other words, the market fluctuations after the Spring Festival may be faster!

At present, it is certain that corn prices will fluctuate strongly in the remaining days before the Spring Festival. However, according to management, prices will inevitably decrease after the New Year. As we have mentioned more than once, the inventory of enterprises is sufficient, and the recent increase in operating rates is a holiday effect of the Spring Festival. The sustained effect cannot exceed the 15th day of the first lunar month! And the pressure on grain sources has basically become a foregone conclusion!

Summary: Recently, there will be frequent fluctuations in enterprise prices, with the main reference point being the delivery situation of enterprises. After all, the vast majority of people cannot research the sales situation of various regions. Corn prices have become clear before and after the Spring Festival, and Shandong enterprises are likely to maintain around 2100-2300 yuan/ton. The overall price in Northeast China will remain between 2000-2100 yuan/ton. However, after entering the 23rd day of the twelfth lunar month, the market will gradually enter the "holiday" stage, and the supply-demand game before and after the Spring Festival will not change. The buyer market is the mainstream!

The first thing to consider after the New Year is whether policies will continue to be implemented, especially whether there will be a one-time storage policy. Secondly, whether the government will adjust the import plan and auction investment intensity. Regarding the mid to long term trend of corn, the editor never denies that there will be a market for corn in the medium to long term. This is due to the lack of hope for a significant increase in March. The editor believes that the opportunity for corn will be in the period from June to September after the end of the year. The main reason for this judgment is that the progress of grain sales this year is relatively fast, and there may be temporary supply shortages in the later stage. Although it is difficult to reproduce the peak, it will at least be 100-200 yuan/ton higher than the current price!

Regarding the question of whether wheat will continue to decline before the Spring Festival, the editor's opinion is that the rise will not be smooth sailing. Once companies receive more goods, the decline will still occur. The entire wheat market is now a game, and the initiative of the game is in the hands of the buyers. The psychological battle of the buyers is called a "6", but the possibility of a repeat oversold is unlikely. After all, as the Spring Festival is getting closer and everyone is starting to stabilize, the supply and demand sides have reached a "strange" tacit understanding. Although the volume is increasing, a new round of grain sales has not yet formed. In the past week, we need to pay attention to the circulation status of market goods. The editor needs to reiterate that the current shipment is not a good opportunity, and we should pay attention to the auction of China National Grain Reserves Corporation. The editor suggests that everyone pay more attention to the transaction price, delivery cycle, grain source years, and transaction situation, Before the policy of storage and procurement stops, the fluctuation range of wheat is within a controllable range, but periodic shipments will occur frequently, and the game between supply and demand will not fundamentally change in the short term!

After entering this month, the purchase and sales of downstream flour have rebounded, and enterprises are facing the demand for replenishing inventory. Even if the bran market is under pressure, there is still profit margin for enterprises. Although the overall market situation is oversupply and the market presents a "double empty" situation, the short-term wheat spot may continue the weak and stable adjustment trend. However, with the emergence of the premium of China National Grain Reserves Corporation, it has played a good role in helping. This month's focus should still be on the situation of grain source entering the market and downstream procurement situation! The overall trend of the wheat market is bound to fluctuate and fluctuate before the Spring Festival, but the probability of a stage market situation will decrease, and the biggest variable is the stocking cycle of flour milling enterprises before and after the Spring Festival! With the passage of time, the confidence of grain holders in wheat has also been restored!