Global corn supply and demand increase uncertainty this year

On February 11, 2025, the US Department of Agriculture released a supply and demand report, which maintains the same forecast for US production, feed and other usage, exports, and ending inventory for 2024/25 as the previous month. It is expected that the corn production in 2024/2025 will be 14.867 billion catties, a decrease of nearly 500 million catties from the peak of 15.341 billion catties in 2023/24. The expected yield of US corn in 2024/2025 is 179.3 bushels per acre. Despite the strong performance of US corn exports so far this year, the US Department of Agriculture maintains its export forecast unchanged at 2.45 billion catties, an increase of 6.9% from 2.292 billion catties last year. The amount of corn used in the ethanol industry in the United States is 5.5 billion catties, slightly higher than last year's 5.478 billion catties; The usage of corn in the feed industry in the United States remained at 5.775 billion catties, lower than last year's 5.804 billion catties. The total amount of corn used has been reduced by 75 million catties to 15.1 billion catties. The year-end corn inventory in the United States for 2024/25 also remained at 1.54 billion catties, a decrease of 12.6% from the previous year's 1.763 billion catties.

In terms of global corn supply and demand adjustment, this month the US Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for global corn production for 2024/25 to 1.21247 billion tons, lower than last month's forecast of 1.23007 billion tons, a decrease of 1.88 million tons. Mainly due to the decrease in corn production in Brazil and Argentina. Corn exports from Brazil, Ukraine, and South Africa have been reduced. The estimated global corn export volume for 2024/25 has been lowered to 189.23 million tons, a decrease of 2.18 million tons from the previous month. The global corn feed consumption for 2024/25 is expected to be 777.5 million tons, a decrease of 830000 tons from the previous month. The final corn inventory increase outside the United States mainly reflects the increase in inventory in China. The global corn ending inventory is expected to be 290.31 million tons, a decrease of 3.03 million tons from last month.

This month's forecast for the supply and demand situation of Chinese corn in 2024/25 remains consistent with last month, with a sowing area of 44740.7 thousand hectares and a unit area yield adjusted to 6591.7 kilograms per hectare, resulting in a total yield of 294.917 million tons. The current activity of purchasing and selling corn in the market has recovered, and with the rise of temperature, the number of listings will further increase. At the same time, there is good demand for feed, and the operating rate of deep processing enterprises remains high. Grain consuming enterprises have a strong overall willingness to replenish inventory and stock up, and they are more active in entering the market for acquisitions. It is expected that the corn market will be prosperous in both purchasing and sales.