IGC： Global grain production decreases by 4 million tons due to reduced corn production

The International Grains Council (IGC), headquartered in London, released its monthly report on Thursday, lowering its global grain production forecast for 2024/25, mainly due to a decrease in South American corn production.

IGC predicts that the global grain production for 2024/25 will be 2.301 billion tons, a decrease of 4 million tons from the January forecast and slightly lower than the 2.309 billion tons for 2023/24. IGC stated that the reduction in grain production this time mainly reflects the decrease in corn production.

Global grain consumption is expected to reach a record high of 2.334 billion tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous forecast, but an increase of 12 million tons or 0.5% year-on-year. Due to a decrease in supply and an increase in consumption, the estimated ending inventory is 576 million tons, which is 3 million tons higher than the previous forecast, but a decrease of 32 million tons or 5.3% compared to the previous year, reaching the lowest point in 10 years. This is because the ending inventory of corn decreased by 22 million tons year-on-year, and the ending inventory of wheat decreased by 9 million tons year-on-year.

As for corn, IGC predicts this month that the global production for 2024/25 will be 1.216 billion tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from the previous forecast of 1.219 billion tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 15 million tons or 1.2 percentage points. This adjustment is due to the deteriorating prospects for corn production in South America. Brazil's corn production is expected to be 123.3 million tons, lower than the previously predicted 124.6 million tons; Argentina's corn production has also been reduced by 1 million tons to 53 million tons.

This month's forecast for global corn consumption is 1.238 billion tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the January forecast, but a year-on-year increase of 11 million tons.

IGC stated that the global corn planting area is expected to increase in 2025/26, and the corn planting area of major exporting countries may also expand.

IGC will increase global wheat production by 1 million tons to 797 million tons for 2024/25 this month, a year-on-year increase of 2 million tons. Among them, Kazakhstan's wheat production will increase by 600000 tons to 18.6 million tons. Global wheat consumption has been raised by 1 million tons to 806 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year's 807 million tons.

IGC stated that global soybean production in 2024/25 is expected to reach a record high of 418 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons from the previous forecast due to lower production expectations for Argentina and Paraguay. However, the reduced production is still 22 million tons or 5.6% higher than the previous year's 396 million tons.

IGC stated that with the growth of demand for feed, food, and industry, global soybean processing volume will reach a historic high, and soybean inventories will also reach a record high of 82 million tons. Although it is 2 million tons lower than last month's expectations, it still increases by 8 million tons or 10.8% year-on-year.